What is the true health of the Australian economy? Challenger Chief Economist Dr Jonathan Kearns suggests it may be uglier than the figures released yesterday suggest. The (moderately) good news in data released on Wednesday was that the economy at least grew by 1.1% over the year, but that growth was...
The sovereign debt wave is at a historic peak and appears to continue growing. With higher inflation and reduced liquidity some countries will be able to continue to issue debt easily, while some will not, notes Franklin Templeton. Kim Catechis, Investment Strategist, Franklin Templeton Institute says "We observe that the sovereign debt...
Interest rates rises are starting to slow and many economists are suggesting we are nearing peak rates. If you agree, then it’s time to start thinking about adding interest rate risk, also known as duration. Once interest rate expectations start to reverse, fixed-rate bonds will outperform. Last week I looked at...
Global Asset Allocation Viewpoints and Investment Environment by T. Rowe Price Australia Investment Committee, as at 29 February 2024. MARKET PERSPECTIVE  Firming in global growth expectations, with recent data tilted more positively, while inflation continues to decelerate across most regions. U.S. growth remains most resilient amongst developed economies while weak...
By Robert Tipp, CFA, Chief Investment Strategist and Head of Global Bonds, PGIM Fixed Income As expected, after the strong interest-rate rally in the fourth quarter of last year, the market was due a rest. Indeed, the longer-duration and higher quality segments of the bond market registered negative returns in...
By Daleep Singh, Chief Global Economist, Head of Global Macroeconomic Research, PGIM Fixed Income If central banks' urgency to return inflation to their respective targets encapsulated an underlying theme of the global economy in 2023, early 2024 starts with assessing the ramifications of their initial success. It is a fitting time...
Recently, global asset manager T. Rowe Price held a webinar for Australian investors. I’ve transcribed part of the presentation by Emerging Market Bonds and Global High Income Bond Strategies Portfolio Manager Samy Muaddi whose role is exclusively focussed on debt markets. He describes how the world can get itself...
There’s growing consensus that rates have peaked and now is an opportune time to reassess investment options, prime case in point is Term Deposits (TDs) versus actively managed bond funds. At the end of November 2023, the Yield to Maturity on the Australian Composite Bond index had surged to 4.53%, compared...
Are we nearing the top of the interest rate cycle? Perhaps. One sign that might suggest we are close was this week’s announcement of October’s retail sales rates. Rates declined unexpectedly with spending down 0.2%, when it was projected to increase by 0.6%, perhaps a signal that the RBA’s cash...
The start of 2024 has caught many investors off guard. Resilient US growth and inflation have defied expectations, leading to higher bond yields and a surging US dollar. Equities have paused following their strong advance since October 2023. According to Stephen Dover, Head of the Franklin Templeton Institute: “A lot...

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